Over the last few weeks, there seems to have been a welter of articles and events on the changing shape of work and – as a consequence – how we need to throw our models of change and organisational design out of the window. Whether it’s the robots coming to take our jobs, the gig economy, globalisation or Brexit, everything’s changing and we’re living in scary new world where nothing is certain.
Except perhaps it’s not changing quite as much as we think. For example, recent data suggest that the rate of increase of the use of robots has actually slowed across Europe in the last five years and is at a lower rate in the US. That might speed up again but even now is only at a level of 2.5 robots per 1000 workers.
Similarly, the gig economy – as recognised by a recent CIPD report – still only forms a small percentage of the workforce, most of whom remain in traditional employment relationships. Even if we extend that to all self-employed workers, despite the growth in recent years they still only form around 15% of the working population.
I’ve been hearing about the impact of the VUCA world for at least 5 years now. Looking around, most of the organisations I work with are still structured in a very similar way to the way they were in 2012 – and I suspect they will not look that different in 2022.
The reason – humans adapt slowly to change. The technology to create driverless cars may exist, but until they are socially accepted they won’t take off. And that won’t be until numerous ethical and political issues are resolved. How many people talk to Siri/Cortana/Alexa currently? A growing number, but still only a tiny minority. Many humans find the idea of conversing with an inanimate machine a difficult concept. It will come no doubt, but over a longer timescale than the proponents suggest.
So while we should review our models and theories of change (particularly dumping the outdated Lewin model in the dustbin of history) we should remember that change will be controlled by the speed that humans want it to – not simply by the fact that we have the ability to do something.